Turkey and its realignment away from the West since Erdogan: Turkeys alliance with the west will depend in major part on how it views the Russian Threat

Turkey’s newly independent foreign policy and its limitations:  Why Turkey will not steer far away from the United States.

Over the past decade Turkey has paraded it new found economic resurgence and reassurance by way of its geopolitical repositioning in the region.  It has begun to play a leading and more independent role in many of the current issues facing the Middle East.  Concurrently as massive economic shockwaves due to the West’s overleveraging of assets have struck the European Union, Turkey has been less motivated by the carrot of future integration with Europe.  The independence of Turkey’s foreign policy is also predicated on its relative strength in comparison to its historic northern rival, Russia.

Turkey’s geographic position; dominating Asia Minor, controlling the Black Seas access to the Oceans, and  at the cross roads of the Near East, the Persian Gulf Region, the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the East Mediterranean and the Balkans, present the nation with unique Geopolitical opportunities.  However, for centuries Turkish dominated Asia Minor has come into incessant rivalry and animosity with its neighbor to the north, Russia. Russia has for centuries sought to control the Black seas access to the Mediterranean, a key access point controlled since the fall of Constantinople in 1453 by the Turks. The rivalry has often manifested itself either actual wars, or an uneasy peace. 

The future of Russo-Turkish relations will be challenged by Russias desire for an access point to the worlds oceans through the Turkish controlled straits. In fact recent decades have provided Russia with increased aspiration for a warm sea port.  The loss of Russia’s Soviet Empire in the 1990’s meant the loss of the Baltic States to the expanding European Union and NATO.  What remains of Russia Baltic territories are Kaliningrad a small outpost lodged between NATO countries, and St. Petersburg.  To the Far East on the Pacific lies Vladivostok, a port city too far away from Russia’s strategic economic heartland to present much strategic value.  Thus, Russia’s designs over an access point to the world’s Oceans via the Bosporus have not faded and are likely to increase as it attempts to assume a more dominant role as a power player within the international geopolitical realm. 

As Russia’s desire over the Bosporus resurface Turkey’s trepidation of its northern menace will increase.  Turkey’s political and military complex will be presented with an impasse in their attempts to steer their countries foreign policy towards a path more independent of Europe and the United States.  A more independent foreign policy will inevitably lead to less support from powers which it believes it will need to block the encroachment of its longtime northern rival.  
Thus, If Turkey views Russia as a greater threat then is will attempt to seek closer ties to the West.  If however Turkey is reassured of Russia's non threatening posture then is will seek out a foreign regional policy that will be more independent of the west.